Daily Archives: February 2, 2014

Costa Rica’s chocolate comeback, The journey of cocoa, from bean to bar.


Navigating the Commodity Markets with Freight and Spreads

Although cocoa is one of the world’s smallest soft commodity markets, it has global implications on cocoa importers and exporters, food and candy producers, and the retail industry. Historically, from 1960 to 2014, Cocoa has reached an all time high of $5,368/MT in July of 1977  or about $20,635/MT in 2014 money.

Credit: tradingeconomics


Weather risk plays an important role for every agricultural commodities. Observations on the cocoa field and weather stations ?

Because Cocoa has no substitutes it has a very inelastic supply. Price patterns in the 70’s suggest that if trend is higher, prices can show no caps during many years.

coffee inelastic supply

The International Cocoa Organization provides grinding, production, demand, ending stocks statistics    http://www.icco.org/

Regression model for cocoa ending stock/grind ratio suggests that most price volatility will arise at low ES/Grind ratio level.

cocoa price ending stock grind ratio

Credit: An Analysis of the Ending Stocks to Use Ratio in Forecasting Cocoa Prices by Brian W. Meinken…

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Historian Lennox Honychurch Points to the Caribbean’s Resistance to Regional Integration

regional integration

Repeating Islands


Caribbean historian Dominican Dr. Lennox Honychurch is pointing out the inequity between appointed senators and elected members of parliament and the problem this could pose for legislatures in the Eastern Caribbean. He also expressed doubt that the Caribbean will ever “come together” because of individualism, in spite of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) push towards an agenda focusing on regional integration.

“For the most parts, except for these things like votes of no confidence and changing the constitutions in certain respects, the nominated members have the same power in parliament as the nominated members. Now this may not be considered to be fair,” Dr. Honeychurch said. He argued that elected members have the stress of dealing with constituencies while nominated members do not and still have the same powers as elected members.

Dr. Honeychurch, a guest on WINN FM’s Voices programme on Wednesday commended the provision in the St. Kitts Nevis constitution that…

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